Parametric uncertainty in a simple model of a social-ecological network

Abstract

I present a simple mathematical model of a network of human settlements and natural ecosystems from urban studies, and assess the impact of parametric uncertainty on our understanding of the dynamics of archaeological networks. The model resembles the well-studied Lotka-Volterra predator-prey system, extended to include the nontrivial consumer-resource connectivity structures and nonlinear returns to scale that characterize real-world social-ecological networks. I explore how uncertainty in the parameters governing scaling and connectivity impact the behavior of the model, and how similar uncertainties impact our understanding of empirical social-ecological networks derived from archaeological proxy records. I conclude by outlining how future empirical efforts can help to reduce these conceptual uncertainties and refine our thinking about past network dynamics.