Simulating Social-Ecological Cascades

What made the Black Death so devastating, and what can it teach us about pandemics today? Our team is combining cutting-edge computer modeling with evidence from medieval skeletal remains, tree rings, and historical records to reconstruct one of history’s deadliest pandemics. By analyzing how climate changes affected crops, migration patterns, and urban life, we’re uncovering how environmental and social factors combined to create perfect conditions for catastrophic disease outbreaks. This innovative approach doesn’t just illuminate history – it’s helping us understand how climate and society influence modern disease outbreaks, offering crucial insights for public health planning in our changing world.

This project was recently funded by the US National Science Foundation.